Half a Century

I am rapidly approaching the half a century mark.

I have done a lot of soul searching and deep thinking about the past 50 years/.

I thought about sharing dates and landmarks in history, but do you really care where I was when Lennon was shot, or what telephones used to be like?

I decided to write a few thoughts on the improvements that should have been made in the last 50 years, given the advancements in technology.

First off, especially because it has so much impact on Earth, transportation.  A few improvements have been made, the subway in Washington DC is one example.

But automobile engines??? Still using gasoline, still getting mostly the same mileage?? And the cost of those vehicles? More or less affordable?

My futuristic vision for public transportation is really sci-fi.  Pods that travel through tubes. The pods would have a shell made of genetically engineered ...(algae) that could absorb nutrients from the tube and convert it into propulsion energy. The nutrients in the tube could be obtained through sewage.

One could merely "call up a pod" which would then pick you up and deliver you to your destination, or, in a nod to capitalism, one could purchase their own designer pods equipped with couches and televisions.

And what about advances in architecture over the last 50years? A few changes in building codes for mandatory insulation?
Double paned windows?

My sci fi vision for human habitation is based on this observation of what has happened in the last 50 years: Loss of life. BUILD BUILD BUILD, more buildings above the ground, more roads, parking lots, power corridors.  If we are to save the Earth, this HAS to be drastically changed.  We need to INCREASE growing space, not annihilate every square inch of the planet.

I have a couple of proposals for that. First, every roof needs to be a growing space. Whether buildings are placed below ground or designed to withstand substantial roof loads. The effect will be twofold: Less energy consumption due to the higher insulating value , and cleaner cooler air. There could also be crop benefit, ie strawberries or grain.

Embracing the vision, one can see exterior walls being utilized as growing spaces, trellised in flowers or herbs or vegetables or just grasses.

And the bugs and birds and amphibians that delight in those green spaces should be embraced and not vilified.

Worried about water? The whole system could be designed to utilize waste water, and purify it in the process.

Plants absorb CO2, the primary "greenhouse gas" and release oxygen. The process "fixes" the carbon into the plant life.

Earth buildings would generate less CO2 by requiring less energy for heating and cooling, in fact, help remove CO2 from the atmosphere by absorption of CO2. Earth buildings would also be better protected from severe weather.

The Firebird and I had additional discussion about water insulated habitats-my idea but discarded due to instability of currents and waves, also the conductive value of water would require a building to have more insulation. But-they would be cool in hot weather. :) Anti-gravity buildings (the Firebird's suggestion) would require technology we are not aware of, and would also shade the ground unless designed to drift.

Safe alternatives need to be found for dangerous polluting chemicals and the mass production of dangerous substances needs to be controlled unless the risk is worth the gain. For public health not private industry.

Health care improvements are another blog. A good place to start- is to stop

polluting the planet with toxic waste.

Weather

I want to say something intelligent about the weather. I desperately want to link it to climate change. Yet I read that even prominent climate change scientists are saying this cold snap most of the US is under is part of a natural cycle. Sure, I seem to remember every year seeing the films of farmers spraying their oranges and lemons and strawberries with water to keep the fruit from freezing. Afterall, the farmers have those systems installed to save their crops; so freezing temps are not totally unexpected in warmer climes.

I have even heard of iguanas falling out of trees.

But I stand outside the box of conventional science, and allow the data to seep into the core of my life. And I don't really recall massive storms starting on the west coast and burying the whole country in a wide swath before dumping two feet of snow on Maine and then sitting over the ocean blanketing us in relative warmth while pumping arctic air into the south.

Still, although old, I am relatively young in regards to the weather keeping of even this young nation.

But I remember things that scientists studying climate have done, such as the closed system attempted a few years ago (BIO DOME) with seven different microclimates that six scientists locked themselves into. That ended up being a rather embarrassing joke IMO.

I recall being so infuriated at a simple question in a science course I needed for my Bio degree that I dropped out. The question gave basic dimensions for a lake, the amount of mercury concentrated in the water, and asked how much mercury was in the lake. While on the surface a basic mathematical problem, I felt that it was a prime example of how the scientific community draws conclusions from generalizations. For example, figuring the dimensions of any body of water is really a generalization. Coves, shallows, irregular dimensions depths, and so on, is really just guessitmating volume. Secondly, the mercury would not be evenly distributed throughout the lake. A random sampling of water multiplied by the guessimate of the volume? Mercury builds in sediment, tissues of the inhabitants...yet the student is being trained to assume that the answer that they must give to the precise measure is really a measure of the mercury found in that body of water.

So, it was just a math question. I argued that it was laying groundwork to train future scientists to make massive generalizations on complicated ecosystems.

Until a climate scientist has physically built an actual closed system-not a computer model- with the same ratio of mass as the earth, with a closed atmosphere, and the input of a million other variables, IMO they cannot really accurately predict what is going to happen as the CO2 in the atmosphere rises higher than has even been recorded in the history of the Earth. Change? No denying that! Uniform change? That's already being disproved with the higher rise of average temperatures at the poles vs the rest of the planet. But can it be said with absolute confidence that the unusual weather patterns the entire world is experiencing are not part of this change?

That's right, the world-The UK and the rest of Europe, China....in addition to the US.

It is change and it is unpredictable- using current scientific method. Like a child careening out of control down a snow-covered slope, We can only hold on for the ride.

Just a few years ago we were told the ice would be gone in the Arctic ocean in the summer in 100 years. Then it was 50. Now it is less than ten. That's where generalizations will get you.

Climate Summit Copenhagen

I have expressed my opinion on climate change quite a bit on this blog.I recently told my kids that the world they see in their lifetime will be a changing one. They will be living through climate change.

My view on the recent summit in Copenhagen has me mentally creating an analogy. I keep seeing the scene during The Fellowship of the Ring where different representatives are yelling and arguing and disagreeing about what the future of the Ring should be. The Ring being analogous to climate change.

But alas, we have no Frodo to step forth and say, "I will take it. I will take the Ring to Mordor."

Instead we have Hugo Chavez, who quite aptly assesses the fiasco when he addressed the assembly and said, ""If the climate was a bank, a capitalist bank, they would have saved it."

Climate Change

A dry-ish May rolled into a soaking June and hopes for a hot July were washed away with tons of rain and cold and damp. August is pulling the temps higher, but when the sun breaks out the humidity is so high from all the moisture in the ground evaporating,the rain quickly builds again.

We had a thunderstorm move through this afternoon that dumped a half inch of rain in 45 minutes. It Might have been more-I was using a bucket on the back deck, which is somewhat sheltered, as a gauge.

I believe this cool wet weather is indeed an indicator of climate change. I have been arguing for a couple of years that the melting arctic ice (two record years back to back and this year in between the two) not only melts into the oceans, but evaporates into the atmosphere. Apparently to come down in the 40's latitudes.

Gives us about 50 years, and the desert conditions across the thirties lats will start to see a trickle-down effect and higher than normal rainfall. We'll be drying out then.

The garden is really a swamp. Two rows of peas proved enough for roaming snacking for the saplings, and at the finale we had a couple of guests, one who braved the quagmire to have me picking perfect peas for fresh snacking. The other, recovering from a leg injury, had theirs hand delivered the somewhat drier driveway.

Raspberries were coming on then, too, liberal handouts all around, and then a tour of the different mint varieties, (which are thriving in the wet) applemint, spearmint, lemon balm; a fresh sprig of each crushed and offered in hand.

Bee balm just starting to bloom-each received a flower and a story of Oswego tea.

The bed with tomatoes and summer squashes is really taking off- it maybe better drained. We might have a red tomato by September if the sun stays out long enough.

Other victims to the wet: the basil, the green onions, the garlic is pathetic, the pole beans, the gourds...the pumpkins,although we have a few survivors no fruit yet which is a bad sign for August.

One bright side-the windowbox hasn't needed watering once, and the well is full. We could certainly cut back on our normal water conservation-but I'm not sure the saturated leech field could cope with it.

Animal wise, the geese are happy! The goats are suffering from rotting hooves with all this damp and my waiting list. I have a long stretch of four days off-I am going to cycle through all the goat hooves and wash daily until we get back to normal.

I have been taking the kids swimming nearly every day. Some days I don't go in for a dip, bu I always sit on the log and throw sticks for the dog. He loves it-he's manic about it, as long as I don't throw one over his head. If I do, he will go out as deep as he dares and wait for one of the kids to push it within reach.

Peko will stick his whole face in the water to pick up a stick or rock-he's not afraid to get his face wet-the mark of a swimmer if we can ever talk the chicken out of him!

I did tear out the row of bygone peas early in the week-the earth was saturated soaking wet-and replanted a row of peas. Part of the other old row I planted some more salad mix. Two days of sun and the peas were sprouting-the torrential rain this afternoon probably shacked the lettuce...again...sigh. Well, there's always hope for the taters.... :D

Misc

What a winter-when it's not below zero and freezing pipes, it's dropping a foot of snow on us! This last storm is supposed to leave 8-15 inches of snow by the time it moves out overnight. The saplings say we have about a foot out there now.

I just read that this monster storm has left a million people without power. Kentucky alone had 350,000 out. I predict this is just the status quo with climate change-and it could get worse.

I have been waiting for Exxon Mobil's fourth quarter earning reports to hit the net. I noted that last year they were released Feb 1, so a couple more days. I predict even larger profits for this quarter. Oil prices are down to less than 40dollars a barrel, but gasoline prices should be running about 1.25 a gallon at those figures, and it is 1.86 here at the local stations. That means .60 a gallon higher on the refinery end-so don't be fooled, the oil giants are not losing money at $38 a barrel.

Regarding the banking bailout, the feds are blacking out contract info as to what banks received deals. Not only has money been given to the banks outright with no accountability, but over a trillion dollars has been lent out at special rates. The rich get richer while the poor get laid off, kicked out, and sit shivering in the dark.

On a personal note, I was on two feet today! The goats were having fencing issues, and while the saplings have been stellar with the goat care chores, fencing falls to me. I was pleased to see how clean the goat houses were while I was out there fixing the electric fence, and disconnecting some lower lines in preparation for tonight's storm. That was before I knew we might get over a foot of snow. So I might have the Firebird strap on the snowshoes tomorrow and run the fenceline for me.

I tried like hell to get a boot on my burnt foot today. Even the giant moon boots were a no-go. Finally I grabbed a pair of sneakers and I couldn't believe I could get one on over the bandages. I put a boot on the good foot.

I went into the pens on crutches, and Moonie and Obiwan were scared to death of me! Kind old Caesar greeted me at his fenceline with a grin. Julius was a little nervous until I spoke to him, then buried his face in the hay and managed to step on my toes while I was working. Nic was oblivious as long as hay was in front of him. Derek and his Mom Daphne took a break from their hay and let me pet them.

I ended up having to go off-trail to disconnect part of the fence, and my toes were FROZEN by the time I made it back to the house! I guess the circulation isn't too great on the toes on the burnt foot. Plus, sneakers are not too warm!

Now I am worried with all this snow I will have to get on the goat house roof and shovel it off. I really don't want to get up there!

My foot looked a little irritated when I changed the bandages this afternoon, and it was bothering me tonight, so I tried to keep off of it tonight and went back to the crutches. The itching has started on the ankle and toes-I will be in agony when the rest starts to heal more. That's still too tender to be itching.

My house is a disaster! I haven't had the heart to ask the kids for much more than fetching and carrying with all the extra outdoor chores. I am hoping to vaccuum tomorrow and get to the enormous pile of dishes. I don't want the place a hovel on my birthday!

Hopefully by tomorrow my aversion to hot water will be wearing off.... :D

Go Obama

It is clear president-elect Obama is not going to follow the Bush administration's approach to Climate Change by burying his head in the sand.

Yesterday Obama appointed four scientists to top posts in his future administration. His Science adviser will be Harvard Physicist, John Holdren; Jane Lubchenko, a Marine Biologist, will head NOAA-leading government studies on Climate Change.

Both Holdren and Lubchenko are recognized experts on Climate Change and have advocated a forceful government response.

Fierce storms continue to pound parts of the US. Another 250 million people are out of power in the midwest following record snowfalls. That storm just clipped us here in Maine last night, dropping another 3 inches of powder through single-digit temperatures.

Not so with another storm headed our way tomorrow-that one is lining up to be a real NOr'Easter with significant snowfall. I didn't catch snowfall predictions, but I am assuming that means at least a foot of snow.

That one is sure to hurt retailers, already sufferring from a slack economy. Less folks will be out shopping this last weekend before Christmas when travelling is treacherous.

Speaking of the economy, Obama is reported to have a plan to create jobs by rebuilding infrastructure. Here's an idea: Why not use that infrastructure money to lay underground utility lines for the Northern half of the country? So many people suffer, and will continue to suffer, as these fierce storms tear down power lines. The utility companies just can't keep up-some folks in New Hampshire are still down following last week's ice storm.

Not only that, but then the utility companies pass on those repair costs to the customers in delivery charges, often exceeding the cost of power itself-more than doubling the cost to the consumer.

The government should take over the power infrastructure-we are paying for it anyhow-and do it right. Lay underground pipes and cable. Once those are in place, the upkeep will be minimal, and consumers are guaranteed to have a consistent source of power even during violent weather. Who isn't tired of hearing the power companies claim that installing underground lines isn't cost efficient? It must be more efficient to hire tree crews to annually trim trees and pay emergency crews overtime to leave customers out in the cold for days.

Step it up, Obama, and set them straight.

2008 global temperature

2008 is lining up to be the coldest year in a decade-but the tenth hottest since records have been kept-in the late 1880's.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/dec/05/climate-change-weather

Tell Barack Obama the Truth – The Whole Truth

Dr. James E. Hansen
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20081121_Obama.pdf

Here's an excerpt from Dr. Hansen's latest posting:

"...Tax and 100% dividend. A “carbon tax with 100 percent dividend” is required for
reversing the growth of atmospheric CO2. The tax, applied to oil, gas and coal at the mine or
port of entry, is the fairest and most effective way to reduce emissions and transition to the
post fossil fuel era. It would assure that unconventional fossil fuels, such as tar shale and tar
sands, stay in the ground, unless an economic method of capturing the CO2 is developed.
The entire tax should be returned to the public, equal shares on a per capita basis (half
shares for children up to a maximum of two child-shares per family), deposited monthly in
bank accounts. No bureaucracy is needed.
A tax should be called a tax. The public can understand this and will accept a tax if it is
clearly explained and if 100 percent of the money is returned to the public. Not one dime
should go to Washington for politicians to pick winners. No lobbyists need be employed.
The public will take steps to reduce their emissions because they will continually be
reminded of the matter by the monthly dividend and by rising fossil fuel costs. It must be
clearly explained to the public that the tax rate will continue to increase in the future.
When fuel prices decline, the tax should increase, to retain the incentive for transitioning
to the post-fossil-fuel-era. The effect of reduced fossil fuel demand will be lower fossil fuel
prices, making the tax a larger and larger portion of energy costs (for fossil fuels only). Thus
the country will stop hemorrhaging its wealth to oil-producing states.
Tax and dividend is progressive. A person with several large cars and a large house will
have a tax greatly exceeding the dividend. A family reducing its carbon footprint to less than
average will make money. Everyone will have an incentive to reduce their carbon footprint.
The dividend will stimulate the economy, spur innovation, and provide money that allows
people to purchase low carbon products.
A carbon tax is honest, clear and effective. It will increase energy prices, but low and
middle income people, especially, will find ways to reduce carbon emissions so as to come
out ahead. The rate of infrastructure replacement, thus economic activity, can be modulated
by how fast the carbon tax rate increases. Effects will permeate society. Food requiring lots
of carbon emissions to produce and transport will become more expensive and vice versa,
encouraging support of nearby farms as opposed to imports from half way around the world.
Beware of alternative approaches, such as ‘percent emission reduction goals’ and ‘cap
and trade’. These are subterfuges designed to allow business-as-usual to continue, under a
pretense of action, a greenwashing. Hordes of lobbyists will argue for these approaches,
which assure their continued employment. The ineffectiveness of ‘goals’ and ‘caps’ is made
blatantly obvious by the fact that the countries promoting them are planning to build more
coal-fired power plants.
If the United States accedes to the ineffectual ‘goals’ and ‘caps’ approach, in effect
continuation of the Kyoto Protocol approach, it will practically guarantee disastrous climate
change. Instead it should persuasively argue that other countries also adopt tax and dividend.
The countries agreeing to this approach will also agree that imports from a country that does
not apply a comparable carbon tax will be taxed at the port of entry. That tax, which should
be added to the public’s dividend, will be a strong incentive for all countries to participate..."

Twenty Years Later: James Hansen

Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near
James Hansen1
My presentation today is exactly 20 years after my 23 June 1988 testimony to Congress, which
alerted the public that global warming was underway. There are striking similarities between
then and now, but one big difference.
Again a wide gap has developed between what is understood about global warming by
the relevant scientific community and what is known by policymakers and the public. Now, as
then, frank assessment of scientific data yields conclusions that are shocking to the body politic.
Now, as then, I can assert that these conclusions have a certainty exceeding 99 percent.
The difference is that now we have used up all slack in the schedule for actions needed to
defuse the global warming time bomb. The next President and Congress must define a course
next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for
the present dangerous situation.
Otherwise it will become impractical to constrain atmospheric carbon dioxide, the
greenhouse gas produced in burning fossil fuels, to a level that prevents the climate system from
passing tipping points that lead to disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of
humanity’s control.
Changes needed to preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed, are
clear. But the changes have been blocked by special interests, focused on short-term profits, who
hold sway in Washington and other capitals.
I argue that a path yielding energy independence and a healthier environment is, barely,
still possible. It requires a transformative change of direction in Washington in the next year.
On 23 June 1988 I testified to a hearing, chaired by Senator Tim Wirth of Colorado, that the
Earth had entered a long-term warming trend and that human-made greenhouse gases almost
surely were responsible. I noted that global warming enhanced both extremes of the water cycle,
meaning stronger droughts and forest fires, on the one hand, but also heavier rains and floods.
My testimony two decades ago was greeted with skepticism. But while skepticism is the
lifeblood of science, it can confuse the public. As scientists examine a topic from all
perspectives, it may appear that nothing is known with confidence. But from such broad openminded
study of all data, valid conclusions can be drawn.
My conclusions in 1988 were built on a wide range of inputs from basic physics,
planetary studies, observations of on-going changes, and climate models. The evidence was
strong enough that I could say it was time to “stop waffling”. I was sure that time would bring
the scientific community to a similar consensus, as it has.
While international recognition of global warming was swift, actions have faltered. The
U.S. refused to place limits on its emissions, and developing countries such as China and India
rapidly increased their emissions.
What is at stake? Warming so far, about two degrees Fahrenheit over land areas, seems almost
innocuous, being less than day-to-day weather fluctuations. But more warming is already “inthe-
pipeline”, delayed only by the great inertia of the world ocean. And climate is nearing
dangerous tipping points. Elements of a “perfect storm”, a global cataclysm, are assembled.
Climate can reach points such that amplifying feedbacks spur large rapid changes. Arctic
sea ice is a current example. Global warming initiated sea ice melt, exposing darker ocean that
absorbs more sunlight, melting more ice. As a result, without any additional greenhouse gases,
the Arctic soon will be ice-free in the summer.
More ominous tipping points loom. West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are
vulnerable to even small additional warming. These two-mile-thick behemoths respond slowly
at first, but if disintegration gets well underway it will become unstoppable. Debate among
scientists is only about how much sea level would rise by a given date. In my opinion, if
emissions follow a business-as-usual scenario, sea level rise of at least two meters is likely this
century. Hundreds of millions of people would become refugees. No stable shoreline would be
reestablished in any time frame that humanity can conceive.
Animal and plant species are already stressed by climate change. Polar and alpine
species will be pushed off the planet, if warming continues. Other species attempt to migrate,
but as some are extinguished their interdependencies can cause ecosystem collapse. Mass
extinctions, of more than half the species on the planet, have occurred several times when the
Earth warmed as much as expected if greenhouse gases continue to increase. Biodiversity
recovered, but it required hundreds of thousands of years.
The disturbing conclusion, documented in a paper2 I have written with several of the world’s
leading climate experts, is that the safe level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is no more than 350
ppm (parts per million) and it may be less. Carbon dioxide amount is already 385 ppm and
rising about 2 ppm per year. Stunning corollary: the oft-stated goal to keep global warming less
than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) is a recipe for global disaster, not salvation.
These conclusions are based on paleoclimate data showing how the Earth responded to
past levels of greenhouse gases and on observations showing how the world is responding to
today’s carbon dioxide amount. The consequences of continued increase of greenhouse gases
extend far beyond extermination of species and future sea level rise.
Arid subtropical climate zones are expanding poleward. Already an average expansion
of about 250 miles has occurred, affecting the southern United States, the Mediterranean region,
Australia and southern Africa. Forest fires and drying-up of lakes will increase further unless
carbon dioxide growth is halted and reversed.
Mountain glaciers are the source of fresh water for hundreds of millions of people. These
glaciers are receding world-wide, in the Himalayas, Andes and Rocky Mountains. They will
disappear, leaving their rivers as trickles in late summer and fall, unless the growth of carbon
dioxide is reversed.
Coral reefs, the rainforest of the ocean, are home for one-third of the species in the sea.
Coral reefs are under stress for several reasons, including warming of the ocean, but especially
because of ocean acidification, a direct effect of added carbon dioxide. Ocean life dependent on
carbonate shells and skeletons is threatened by dissolution as the ocean becomes more acid.
Such phenomena, including the instability of Arctic sea ice and the great ice sheets at
today’s carbon dioxide amount, show that we have already gone too far. We must draw down
atmospheric carbon dioxide to preserve the planet we know. A level of no more than 350 ppm is
still feasible, with the help of reforestation and improved agricultural practices, but just barely –
time is running out.
Requirements to halt carbon dioxide growth follow from the size of fossil carbon reservoirs.
Coal towers over oil and gas. Phase out of coal use except where the carbon is captured and
stored below ground is the primary requirement for solving global warming.
Oil is used in vehicles where it is impractical to capture the carbon. But oil is running
out. To preserve our planet we must also ensure that the next mobile energy source is not
obtained by squeezing oil from coal, tar shale or other fossil fuels.
Fossil fuel reservoirs are finite, which is the main reason that prices are rising. We must
move beyond fossil fuels eventually. Solution of the climate problem requires that we move to
carbon-free energy promptly.
Special interests have blocked transition to our renewable energy future. Instead of
moving heavily into renewable energies, fossil companies choose to spread doubt about global
warming, as tobacco companies discredited the smoking-cancer link. Methods are sophisticated,
including funding to help shape school textbook discussions of global warming.
CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are aware of long-term
consequences of continued business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs should be tried for
high crimes against humanity and nature.
Conviction of ExxonMobil and Peabody Coal CEOs will be no consolation, if we pass on
a runaway climate to our children. Humanity would be impoverished by ravages of continually
shifting shorelines and intensification of regional climate extremes. Loss of countless species
would leave a more desolate planet.
If politicians remain at loggerheads, citizens must lead. We must demand a moratorium
on new coal-fired power plants. We must block fossil fuel interests who aim to squeeze every
last drop of oil from public lands, off-shore, and wilderness areas. Those last drops are no
solution. They yield continued exorbitant profits for a short-sighted self-serving industry, but no
alleviation of our addiction or long-term energy source.
Moving from fossil fuels to clean energy is challenging, yet transformative in ways that will be
welcomed. Cheap, subsidized fossil fuels engendered bad habits. We import food from halfway
around the world, for example, even with healthier products available from nearby fields. Local
produce would be competitive if not for fossil fuel subsidies and the fact that climate change
damages and costs, due to fossil fuels, are also borne by the public.
A price on emissions that cause harm is essential. Yes, a carbon tax. Carbon tax with
100 percent dividend3 is needed to wean us off fossil fuel addiction. Tax and dividend allows the
marketplace, not politicians, to make investment decisions.
Carbon tax on coal, oil and gas is simple, applied at the first point of sale or port of entry.
The entire tax must be returned to the public, an equal amount to each adult, a half-share for
children. This dividend can be deposited monthly in an individual’s bank account.
Carbon tax with 100 percent dividend is non-regressive. On the contrary, you can bet
that low and middle income people will find ways to limit their carbon tax and come out ahead.
Profligate energy users will have to pay for their excesses.
Demand for low-carbon high-efficiency products will spur innovation, making our
products more competitive on international markets. Carbon emissions will plummet as energy
efficiency and renewable energies grow rapidly. Black soot, mercury and other fossil fuel
emissions will decline. A brighter, cleaner future, with energy independence, is possible.
Washington likes to spend our tax money line-by-line. Swarms of high-priced lobbyists in
alligator shoes help Congress decide where to spend, and in turn the lobbyists’ clients provide
“campaign” money.
The public must send a message to Washington. Preserve our planet, creation, for our
children and grandchildren, but do not use that as an excuse for more tax-and-spend. Let this be
our motto: “One hundred percent dividend or fight!”
The next President must make a national low-loss electric grid an imperative. It will
allow dispersed renewable energies to supplant fossil fuels for power generation. Technology
exists for direct-current high-voltage buried transmission lines. Trunk lines can be completed in
less than a decade and expanded analogous to interstate highways.
Government must also change utility regulations so that profits do not depend on selling
ever more energy, but instead increase with efficiency. Building code and vehicle efficiency
requirements must be improved and put on a path toward carbon neutrality.
The fossil-industry maintains its strangle-hold on Washington via demagoguery, using
China and other developing nations as scapegoats to rationalize inaction. In fact, we produced
most of the excess carbon in the air today, and it is to our advantage as a nation to move smartly
in developing ways to reduce emissions. As with the ozone problem, developing countries can
be allowed limited extra time to reduce emissions. They will cooperate: they have much to lose
from climate change and much to gain from clean air and reduced dependence on fossil fuels.
We must establish fair agreements with other countries. However, our own tax and
dividend should start immediately. We have much to gain from it as a nation, and other
countries will copy our success. If necessary, import duties on products from uncooperative
countries can level the playing field, with the import tax added to the dividend pool.
Democracy works, but sometimes churns slowly. Time is short. The 2008 election is
critical for the planet. If Americans turn out to pasture the most brontosaurian congressmen, if
Washington adapts to address climate change, our children and grandchildren can still hold great
expectations.
1 Dr. James E. Hansen, a physicist by training, directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a laboratory
of the Goddard Space Flight Center and a unit of the Columbia University Earth Institute, but he speaks as a private
citizen today at the National Press Club and at a Briefing to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence &
Global Warming.
2 Target atmospheric CO2: where should humanity aim? J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V.
Masson-Delmotte, M. Raymo, D.L. Royer, J.C. Zachos, http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126 and
http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1135
3 The proposed “tax and 100% dividend” is based largely on the cap and dividend approach described by Peter
Barnes in “Who Owns the Sky: Our Common Assets and the Future of Capitalism”, Island Press, Washington, D.C.,
2001 (http://www.ppionline.org/ppi_ci.cfm?knlgAreaID=116&subsecID=149&contentID=3867

Say Goodbye to the Earth as We know It (edited 11/19/08)

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Nothing like a word of optimism, eh?

I am so hopping mad!!! I just read AP's version of pres-elect Obama's video message to the Los Angeles meeting on climate change today.

He plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.

Let me just toss in here that today at the library I grabbed "Censoring Science" by Mark Bowen, released in January 2008. I started plodding through it, and primarily it centers around data that led Jim Hansen, regarded as the preeminent climate scientist of our time to state, in 1988 after testifying to a Senate Committee, "It's time to stop waffling...and say that the greenhouse effect is here and is affecting our climate now."

Folks, that statement was made in 1988. If we continue to allow greenhouse gas emissions to exceed 1990 levels for 12 years-where will the global climate be?

And cap and trade by auctioning carbon credits? I still argue that the rising price of oil crashed the global economy-so how is raising the price of energy via cap and trade going to help the economy?

I leafed through to the end of the book, and found Jim's web site that I was going to check out, when I came across the AP article on Obama'a climate change policies. So I haven't checked the website out yet and have other things going on at the moment, but here is the web page if anyone wants to check it out before me.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

EDIT:
I have corrected the link-I misread the last character as an l instead of a 1. Should work now, but you need Adobe to read the PDF docs, if interested.

I will also add that Obama at least seems to be following James Hansen's recommendations in the latest PDF. Those are to reduce/eliminate burning of coal. Hansen projects that if the use of coal, the number one CO2 contributor, is curtailed, given the projection of the remaining oil reserves, by 2020 CO2 emissions will gradually start to return to approximate 1990 levels.

In other words, the declining availibility of oil will reduce consumption and the production of CO2 as contributed from oil.

Given those projections, Hansen estimates that there will still be climate change, but not in the extreme that would make life uncomfortable here on Earth.

Those were my impressions from the most recent PDF document.

From my personal climate observations here in my little corner of the Earth, I would venture to say that climate science is a very complicated thing.

For example, the last two summers have seen the greatest loss of Artic sea ice in recorded history. Last fall we had an extremely warm season here, followed by near record snowfall for the winter. This fall, we have been well below normal for average temperatures. Our highs this week, according to local meteorologists, are more in line with average temperatures for December. So, this fall we are below normal for temperature. We have also had a very wet autumn-so perhaps the extensive cloud cover has contributed to those lower temperatures.

Obviously there are many variables that create climatic conditions. If the loss of sea ice was a primary factor in our climate here, I would assume that the last two years would be similar, but they are not. I am curious as to what our snowfall amounts will look like for this winter compared to last year.

Debate and updates

Just a quick note to my regular reader. I removed Rivergirl's blog from my blog list. Last night I picked up some adware from multiply in a scan, and I must have got it from her blog, since hers is the only multiply site I visit. She has started posting ads on there, as well as pix off the net, so I am sure it was unknowing on her part, but I just don't want the risk.

If you have been to her site, I suggest updating your antispyware and running a scan-my apologies.

I watched the debate between Obama and McCain last night, and it reinforced my backing of Obama.

One thing I want to say, it is unfortuneate that this bailout on Wall Street fell hard on the heels of Obama declaring he would invest 180 billion in an energy policy that would free us from our dependence on foreign oil and invest in alternate energies including solar and wind.

This bailout seems like a last ditch effort from the current administration to make sure that those changes can't happen.

Also ironic, IMO, is the fact that conservative Republicans are against it, and the news headers are placing this on the Dems like it is THEIR idea. Just because the Dems were terrorized into making an agreement does not mean that they like it, either.

I am against it in my gut-never thought I would side with conservative Republicans!!! Obama's comments on it did assuage some of my fears last night in that there will be some points in place to help protect the average American. The trouble is, we just have no idea what the banks will be selling us, and I am quite confident that the banks have been taking advantage of this delay to work to their advantage.

We should also add that we won't be buying any bad bank paper that was created more recently than the last month!

Now, some of you probably won't agree with me on this last point, and that is I am mad at the Dems for this line about how much we spend in Iraq versus how much Iraq has for themselves. The US is overseeing the export of a million barrels of light sweet crude out of Iraq per day. The Iraqis did not ask us to come in and destroy their country. Why should they be expected to pay for us being there? I think they have made it quite clear they want us out.

I just think how many wind turbines and solar panels and methane generators could be built on that 10 billion dollars a month we are sending to Iraq for that oil. In the meantime the world is showing more and more severe weather as a direct result of all the greenhouse gases we are dumping into the atmosphere.

The report came out that there was a 3% increase globally in greenhouse gas emissions last year. That far exceeded predictions. Some countries, such as Denmark and the UK, reduced emissions. China, the US, and India increased emissions.

And for the first time since I have spent nearly thirty years in this great state of Maine, a Hurricane is not coming up the eastern seaboard, but coming in off the ocean. IMO weather patterns have already started to reflect the changes seen in our atmosphere.

Ugh

Today is not going very well. For starters, when I went to grain my goats this morning, I discovered that a skunk had been in the goat house during the night. The house smelled so bad I was retching-and the goats, some of whom slept in the house, didn't smell much better.

The bright spot? Thanks goodness I decided to wait another year before showing any goats at the fiber frolic tomorrow!!! I would have been pretty upset to be faced with skunky goats and a goat show! We are looking forward to going to see how things are run to be better prepared next year.

Other screwy things include going to the laundry to discover the accounts lady had just used all the hot water-so I drove another 20 miles + to another laundry to have our whites come out dirtier than when they went in-despite the unusual pretreating effort I did, and actually used bleach for a change. They must have hard water, because I kept adding soap but it just wouldn't foam....So now, a lot of the clothes will be permanently stained since they went in the dryer before I realized their condition.

Then on the way home I stopped to buy hay and the dealer was out-so I went to another dealer and while we were loading, ambulances and firetrucks went racing by-never a good sign. The fire was at a dome home I had been in years ago for a child's birthday party...gone now, and I hope the occupants made it out safely!

The Senate squashed a climate change bill today that would have capped emissions and created a CO2 trading deal-mostly aimed at large companies. Although the bill had more yes than no votes, there was not enough to override a Republican filibuster. Because it would have been too costly economically. Hello? How much worse can it be when gas is $4 a gallon ? Oh right, costly to BIG BUSINESS. I wonder how many midwestern senators voted against it-while their towns are being devasted by tornadoes and flooding?

There is some good news. An Eagle named Beauty, whose beak was shot off by poachers has received a temporay prosthetic beak. Quite interesting, here's the link for a slideshow and more information about raptor rehabilitation.
http://birdsofpreynorthwest.org/

greenhouse gas graph

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/ (source)

So glad that someone over at NOAA finally put all that scientific data I have been oogling for months, years, even, into a handy little chart!

ONe will note that the only thing on the decline are those nasty little CFC's, governed by the Montreal protocol as ozone depleting chemicals, and I have to say, they have not declined nearly enough...we are at 1988 levels still, but at least not increasing at the same rate as CO2 and NO.

Leaves one to wonder where those latter levels would be if we had joined Kyoto years ago. Thanks for nothing, George.

Major Highlights
NOAA: 2nd Warmest March on Record for Globe Global Land Surface Temperature Warmest on Record
The average global temperature (land and ocean surface combined) for last month was the 2nd warmest on record for March, while the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was near average (ranking the 63rd warmest), according to an analysis by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.U.S. Temperature Highlights
In the contiguous United States, the average temperature for March was 42°F, which was 0.4°F below the 20th century mean, ranking it as the 63rd warmest March on record, based on preliminary data.
Only Rhode Island, New Mexico and Arizona were warmer than average, while near-average temperatures occurred in 39 other states. The monthly temperature for Alaska was the 17th warmest in the 1918-2008 record, with an average temperature 3.8°F above the 1971-2000 mean.
The broad area of near-average temperatures kept the nation's overall temperature-related residential energy demand for March near average, based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index.U.S. Precipitation Highlights
Nine states from Oklahoma to Vermont were much wetter than average...more...

Al Gore has requested(via a mass e-mail, ;) ) that I pass this along...

Dear Friend,
Climate change is an urgent issue that requires immediate solutions. That's why I've joined with Al Gore and others across the country and around the world who want to halt global warming.
We're on the verge of being over one million strong and I'm asking you to join us. Please click here today to become part of the solutions to global warming:
http://wecansolveit.org/onemillion
If leaders in business and government are going to make stopping climate change a priority, we need to send a loud message that we want action now. That's why I'm asking you to get involved today:
http://wecansolveit.org/onemillion
Together, we can stop global warming.

early spring

Signs of early spring related to climate change are popping up all over the world. Some quick research shows the US sites mostly still in the organizational and planning stages. This post in the UK guardian has some actual data to back up the hypothesis.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/mar/19/wildlife.weather

Despite its stops and starts and the recent wild and extreme weather, all the signs point to

this being one of the earliest springs Britain has had.....

Spring 2008 so far

Hazel flower Dec 9 2007, Isle of Wight - flowering usually spans January-March

Snowdrops Nov 2007, Somerset - traditionally out for Feb 2

Frogspawn Dec 24 2007, Penzance - typically end of Feb-Mar

Nest-building rooks Dec 20 2007, south-west England - usually nest between Feb-Mar

Seven-spot ladybirds Jan 1, Staffordshire - not usually seen until Mar

Tadpoles Jan 24, Devon - typically emerge towards the end of Mar

Nesting blue tits Mid Jan, Sutton Coldfield - usually Mar-May

Newts Mid Jan, Cheshire to Somerset - typically move back to ponds in Feb-Mar